On 22 March, ELA’s President Lousineh Hakobyan participated in a discussion organized by International IDEA on the implications of Russia’s war in Ukraine on democracies in Armenia, Georgia and Moldova.
Below are some of the key notes of her presentation:
Since the 2018 revolution Armenia has been slowly progressing with its democratic reform agenda.
Two major national elections in which the right to free and fair elections of the Armenian citizens were in general ensured even with quite problematic electoral legislation, which the government failed to reform for two times since the spring of 2018.
Slow progress of reform in a number of other sectors, such as police, anti-corruption, constitutional reform, reform of the bar, etc. major failures in the area of judicial reform.
There were also objective factors affecting the progress of reform, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the war of Azerbaijan in Nagorno Karabagh in 2020. The defeat of the Armenian people in this war seriously affected the internal political situation, rendered Armenia more dependent on Russia, seriously undermined the perception of Russia as Armenia’s ally. The West’s stance of a silent observer, perhaps with the exception of France also seriously undermined the domestic perceptions of the West as an adherent to the values that it advocates for. There was a general feeling that the West was not outspoken enough when an act of aggression was committed by Azerbaijan against Armenia. The war was stopped finally with Russia’s mediation and deployment of a Russian peace-keeping contingent around Nagorno Karabagh, which understandably increased Armenia’s dependence on Russia. Russia is perceived to be the only force at the moment able to guarantee the existence of the people of Karabagh on their land.
Also, the role of other major players in the field, such as Turkey was not assessed properly in this country after the revolution and it is only now with a hindsight that some political experts are speaking about the possible agreement between Turkey and Russia regarding the developments in Nagorno Karabagh and also Ukraine, whereby Turkey was allowed by Russia into the South Caucasus in return for Turkey’s as it were neutral assistance in Putin’s current plans in Ukraine.
So, now we are facing a situation when the Armenian people is heavily disillusioned with Russia but believe that Russia’s role is crucial for the security of the Armenians living in Nagorno Karabagh. On the other hand, there is no perception that the West, including the EU can help us much in the face of future possible attacks.
The War in Ukraine is strongly condemned by most of the Armenian society. Having suffered from offensive wars in the past, including a very recent past, the Armenian society strongly condemns Russia for unleashing this war as a means of resolving its international disputes. It is also perceived as an attack on Ukraine’s sovereignty and democratically elected government. In this part there is also understanding in the light of Putin’s one-hour speech justifying his actions prior to the attack that Russia’s unequivocal victory in this war bears direct threats not only to democracy but first and foremost to Armenia’s independence and sovereignty. Putin’s regrets about inclusion in the Soviet Constitution of the provision foreseeing the possibility for the Union republic to exit the Union were well-noted here.
Finally, the war in Ukraine contributes to Azerbaijan’s appetite for continuing its policy of ethnic cleansing of Artsakh. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the people of Artsakh have been facing threats from Azerbaijan in the form of the prevention of the flow of gas from Armenia to Artsakh and also threats extended to the people of the bordering Khramort village in Artsakh and other villages. So, the prolongation of the war threatens Armenia with increased security risks and ethnic cleansing of the Armenian population of Artsakh, which in turn affects the political situation in Armenia with the proponents of the former regime continuously abusing these threats for their political purposes.